KANWAL SIBAL
a former foreign secretary and a former ambassador to Russia
New Delhi
24 December 2010
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's remarks about the need for Pakistan to act on the
issue of terrorism with greater credibility is new language and therefore important,
according to KANWAL SIBAL, a former foreign secretary and a former ambassador to
Russia. In an interview to RAMESH RAMACHANDRAN, he says Russia is politically more
determined to expand its ties with India beyond the defence sector. Excerpts:
Is the Russian connection worth nurturing, considering that lately India has developed
viable relations with leading Western democracies?
It is very wrong to think in terms of an either-or situation because the overall situation
today permits us to develop strong relations with the US and continue to nurture our
longstanding ties with Russia. If we want to play a global role, if we want to be a
permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, it cannot be on the basis of
exclusive relationship. We have to self-confident and establish mutually beneficial
relationships with all centres of power, instead of being a client state of one country or
another, or appear to be particularly close to one country or another.
The outcome of President Dmitry Medvedev's visit seems to have belied the view that
India's old relationship with Russia in areas such as defence was at risk of suffering
badly. How do you see it?
I don't think it is correct to say that the defence relationship was declining. If you look at
the range of what we are sourcing from Russia, you can see that there is no decline; on
the contrary it is a consolidation, and this is so because Russia has been a reliable
supplier of defence equipment and has never interrupted supplies for any reason, and
there is no risk that this might happen in the future if the situation deteriorates in our
neighbourhood. But trade no doubt is a very weak element in our relationship. We have
tried very hard to overcome this deficiency but the progress has been slow. But, now
with this new dynamism that I can see under President Medvedev, I think there are
prospects that our trade can increase. There are now signs that Russia is politically
more determined to expand its ties with India beyond the defence sector. Russia had
always maintained that politically they had no objection to enhanced energy ties with
India but it was not getting translated into actual results on the ground. Now, with the
signing of an inter-governmental agreement on cooperation in hydrocarbons sector, we
have succeeded in our persistent efforts to get Russia to give a political push to this
relationship. With this agreement, there is a platform to work towards that objective. On
the pharmaceuticals side, India has potential to sell more to Russia. Here again, for the
first time, a slew of agreements were signed. So, if energy, IT and pharmaceuticals come
into the mix, obviously it will begin to reflect in trade figures.
Do you see the first hints of a Moscow-Delhi axis emerging in central Asia or in Af-Pak,
especially post-US pullout?
The initiative that had been taken by Russia, Tajikistan, Pakistan and Afghanistan to
discuss the future of that region centred on developments in Afghanistan, was to my
mind not a positive signal so far as India is concerned because it left India out. Pakistan
would have of course been exceedingly happy that their efforts to exclude India from any
forum which discuss Afghanistan's future had succeeded even with a tried and trusted
friend like Russia. However, President Medvedev's visit has removed those
misapprehensions because for the first time the Russians have been upfront and explicit
about the need for Pakistan to act on the issue of terrorism with greater credibility. For
the first time they have named Pakistan and asked it to expeditiously bring all the
perpetrators, authors and accomplices of the Mumbai attacks to justice. They have also
spoken about safe havens for terrorists and radical extremists in Pakistan. This is new
language and this is important.
But what should Russia be doing if its utterances on Pakistan and terrorism have to be
given meaning? Politically, can it apply pressure on Pakistan?
From Russian point of view, their main concern is terrorism emanating from Pakistani
soil and Islamic radicalism which is entrenched in this region, so we have to see
Afghanistan and Pakistan in the same framework. After their debacle in Afghanistan and
the price the Soviet Union paid for that, they are very chary, very circumspect about
playing a high-profile role in Afghanistan. Therefore to expect them to play any prominent
security role would not be realistic. The situation is exceedingly complex and no one,
least of all the Americans, can clearly see what to do next. The US does not seem to
know how to use its leverages to make Pakistan do what it wants. In this situation I can't
see what is it that Russia can proactively do on the ground which would meet both
Russian and Indian objectives. Ultimately, we have to all of us depend on the US and
NATO to make sure that they control sufficiently the situation in Afghanistan and don't
allow disruptive forces to gain power. To that extent, Russia, India or for that matter even
Iran should find it possible in meaningful ways to help the US and NATO and the
international community achieve its objectives in Afghanistan. But, so far, the US has not
sufficiently reached out to regional countries and accommodated sufficiently the thinking
of others; they still wish to retain independence of action and judgment and policies.
Will nurturing the Moscow - Delhi axis be to our benefit or will the costs be too severe?
No, there are no downsides to it; there will be no costs, there will be only benefits. First
of all, as I said, our defence relationship is very strong. Almost 70 per cent of our
defence supplies come from Russia and even if we were to consciously try and diversify
the sources, it won't materially change the situation in the next couple of decades or
more. At best it might come down to 50 per cent or 40 per cent, which is still a very
heavy dependence, and since we are in a difficult situation in terms of security, with two
adversaries across our border who collaborate with each other, our defence needs will
remain very important. Secondly, Russia is, if not an energy superpower, one of the
most well endowed in terms of energy resources. For our growth, just as in the case of
China, we need access to natural resources, so there is a potential synergy in this in the
years ahead. Thirdly, Russia's scientific and technological base in many areas, such as
space and nuclear energy, is very strong. They can therefore serve our needs in these
areas in which we are expanding our own capacities. Expansion of ties in these areas
does not come at the cost of our relations with anyone else. There is no exclusivity
guiding our thinking and approach, and other countries are responding positively to the
way we are handling our larger needs in diverse areas.
How do you rate Medvedev's visit?
I'm more than satisfied. I think the Russian president's statements were made
consciously and deliberately to remove misgivings that had crept into our own thinking
about where Russia stood on some issues. It is a good sign; I see that as Russia also
no longer taking India for granted.
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