New Delhi
20 October 2007
according to a former United States Department of State official. "The consensus view in
Washington is that the deal is dead," he said in an interview to this newspaper.
Daniel Markey served on the Department of State's policy planning staff from 2003 to
2007. He is today a senior fellow for India, Pakistan and South Asia at the Washington-
based Council on Foreign Relations.
He suggested that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh conveyed as much to US President
George Bush when they spoke on telephone last week. Dr Singh was touring the
Nigerian capital Abuja when the conversation took place.
"The message we received is that it's not going to happen. It was a very negative
message [Washington received after the telephone call.] There is always hope [but] the
prime minister wouldn't have called if the deal was not in serious trouble," he said in
response to a question on the fate of the nuclear deal.
Mr Markey, who is touring India and Pakistan, picked up a different message in New
Delhi. Some of his Indian interlocuotors have told him that the deal might still happen.
He was given to understand that the Manmohan Singh Government could choose to hold
out till February next year before deciding one way or another.
He sought to suggest that the UPA could opt to lose the government after it has
positioned itself better for an election. The government could present a popular budget
and then "quickly" go to the International Atomic Energy Agency for negotiating a
safeguards agreement, leaving Washington just enough time to wrap up the remaining
steps.
Doing so, he felt, "will put Washington in a terrible spot" but it will press full steam
ahead if there is a "small chance" of operationalising the nuclear deal before the end of
next year. The Bush Administration could also "move ahead on technical issues"
between now and February next year.
Mr Markey recalled that Washington's response to Dr Singh's message was "Oh, good
grief!" The US, he said, really stuck its neck out and it felt that the deal was worth it. "We
had invested so much political capital and time ... it (deal) has significant political and
strategic pay-offs for both countries," he said, elaborating the mood in the US.
He said that the Americans felt it was more of a tragedy. "They are not angry [because]
they understand politics," he said, "[This] does raise real questions but [the US] will not
turn sour on India." He ruled out any dramatic impact on the the India-US ties. "In the
long term, [the] relationship will still be good."
He hastened to add, almost as an afterthought, that Washington will be inclined to allow
things to cool off before getting on with the bilateral ties. "Scepticism will be that much
higher [because of the] failure at the very highest level," he said when asked about the
impact a "dead" deal will have on the India-US relations.
He said in the same breath that there will always be issues hard to resolve, like defence
procurement, without the US not agreeing to concessions on licensing, etc. He went on to
suggest that the Democrats, if they come to power, could want to "reassess" the nuclear
pact to make it a better deal for the US.
"[The deal] is already seen as capitulation [to India] and a reconfiguration of the
separation plan [to accommodate BJP's demands] will make it pretty impossible to sell
that to the US Congress," he added, ruling out renegotiation of the terms of civil nuclear
cooperation agreement between the two countries.
No comments:
Post a Comment